Scenario and Reduction plan in the CO₂-Footprinting Module

Modified on Fri, 6 Jun at 2:58 PM

A scenario is a numeric story that shows how your emissions will move from the current level to a future year. The module builds two core scenarios for every target:

Business as Usual (BAU): what happens if activity keeps growing but no extra action is taken.
Reduction plan: the pathway that will meet the target you define.

Below is a short guide to what each element means, the two reduction methods the tool supports, and how to create and read the scenarios in practice.

A. Reduction plan

When you reach the “Reduction plan” step you tell the module how emissions should fall between the start year and the end year. There are two ways to do this.

Method	How it works	When to choose it
Nominal reduction	Enter a fixed yearly percentage cut in total emissions. The tool draws a straight declining line from baseline to zero or the chosen floor value.	Most suitable when stakeholders care about absolute tonnes and the company is not growing fast.
Intensity-based reduction	Link emissions to another metric such as revenue, headcount or square metres. Provide the metric name, its baseline value and the yearly percentage cut. The tool converts that into a declining emissions pathway while allowing overall business growth.	Useful for high-growth businesses that want to cut carbon per unit of output.

During the Reduction plan step the form shows a green summary box so you can check the implied total cut, the end-year level and the average yearly rate before you continue.

B. Review and confirm

The final step displays an emissions forecast chart:

Grey bars = BAU.
Green dotted line = Target pathway.
Blue bars = Actual emissions (appear after the first reporting year).
Red shading = Emissions above target if any.

If the pathway looks realistic, click Confirm. The target and its scenarios are now stored.

Setting a clear BAU forecast and a matched reduction plan turns your target into a transparent roadmap. The scenario pages then let you track performance, compare options and communicate progress in a format that finance teams and sustainability managers can read at a glance.

C. Working with scenarios after saving

Scenarios turn an emissions target into a practical roadmap. Each scenario bundles one or more measures (projects or actions) and projects their combined impact year by year. The module ships with ready-made scenarios and lets you add custom ones in a few clicks.

1. The four scenario types

Name shown in the tool	Purpose	When to use it
Baseline scenario	Models “business as usual.” Growth assumptions apply, no new measures beyond what already exists.	Understand the gap you must close.
Target scenario	Includes enough measures to reach the target you set in the Targets tab.	Show stakeholders the minimum action plan.
Accelerated scenario	Adds extra or earlier measures so emissions fall faster than the target line.	Stress-test ambition or explore regulatory pressure.
Custom scenario	Starts blank. You decide the mix of measures, timing, and effort.	Model a board proposal, supplier initiative, or any “what-if” pathway.

2. Building or editing a scenario

Select Scenarios & Measures in the side menu.
Click Edit scenario on an existing card or Create custom scenario.
The scenario wizard has two tabs:
- Details: name, description, and optional tags such as region or business unit.
- Measures: a table that lists every measure in your library with an on–off toggle (see first screenshot).
Switch the toggle to “Yes” for any measure you want to include. The panel updates totals instantly.
Press Confirm to save.

Tip: The guidance box suggests balancing low-cost quick wins with long-term investments and checking scope coverage.

3. The Measures library

Open the Measures library tab to view or create measures. Each row shows:

Scenario currently linked
Annual reduction in percent or tonnes
Annual cost in euro
Start date and End date

Add new measures with Add measure. Required fields are description, estimated annual reduction, cost, and timeline. A measure can be reused in multiple scenarios.

4. Scenario forecast chart

The Scenario forecast in the Analytics tab stacks several visuals:

Base-year emissions are shown in yellow.
Solid bars mark forecast emissions for each scenario.
- Purple = Baseline
- Blue = Target
- Teal = Accelerated
Hatched shading appears when forecast emissions sit above the target line (red) or below it (green).
A green dotted line plots your official target pathway.

5. Cost and return metrics

Each scenario card provides:

Total CO₂ reduction over the timeframe
Investment cost and Operational cost saving where data is supplied
CO₂ cost savings based on an internal carbon price if configured
ROI calculated from cost and savings

These numbers update automatically when you add, remove, or edit measures.

6. Comparing scenarios

At the very top of the Analytics page you will see four selector cards:

Card	What it controls
Timeframe	The start and end years shown in every chart.
Report	Which CO₂ report supplies the baseline emissions.
Target	The emissions target you want to benchmark against.
Scenarios for comparison	Which scenario lines appear in the charts and tables.

Click Edit on the last card to open the Select scenarios to compare pop-up (shown in the screenshot). Tick up to three boxes, usually Baseline scenario, Target Scenario and Accelerated Scenario, then press Confirm.

The module realigns every visual to the same timeframe, report and target so comparisons stay apples to apples. Two outputs stand out:

Scenario forecast chart
- Solid bars: purple = Baseline, blue = Target, teal = Accelerated.
- Hatched overlays show emissions that sit above the target line (pink) or below it (green).
- A green dotted line traces the official target pathway, making it obvious which scenario meets or beats the goal.
Return on investment calculator (table below the chart)
- Investment cost and Operational cost saving for each scenario.
- CO₂ cost saving if an internal carbon price is configured.
- ROI expressed in euro so finance teams can weigh cost against impact.

With one glance you can see which path achieves the target year, which offers the greatest tonne-reduction, and which delivers the best financial return for your budget.

7. Good practice tips

Start simple. Populate the Baseline scenario first to visualise the “do nothing” path.
Focus on hotspots. Select measures that attack the biggest sources identified in your balance sheet.
Use real costs. Even rough cost estimates help reveal which scenario offers the best return for budget.
Revisit quarterly. Update measure status, add new ideas, and retire actions that no longer fit.
Document assumptions. Note growth rates, carbon prices, or technology learning curves used in the forecast.

8. Next steps

Finish creating or editing your scenarios.
Use the Scenario forecast to spot shortfalls.
Iterate on measures until at least one scenario meets or surpasses the target line within the desired cost envelope.
Present the selected scenario to leadership with the built-in charts and ROI figures.

Scenarios give you a structured, visual way to move from ambition to action, helping teams understand trade-offs and pick the most credible decarbonisation path.